Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
