Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
